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13.01.2021 1 minuta čtení

Welcome to the brave new investment world of 2020s!

Welcome to the brave new investment world of 2020s!

Current global equity valuations are at the highest level since at least the dotcom bubble in 2000. My global composite proprietary equity valuation indicates that the broadest global equity index MSCI All Country World is currently overvalued by approximately 50%. At the same time my simple regression model shows that this current valuation implies a – negative – prospective average annual return, including dividends, over the next five years of approximately -5%. For sure equity valuations are not correlated with subsequent equity returns over the short-term horizon, say one year. However over the mid- to long-term time horizon equity valuations are the most important driver of total equity returns. Welcome to the brave new investment world of 2020s!

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